France's public debt stands at around 120% of gross domestic product, according to the report, and rising interest costs are squeezing the government's room to spend. The government plans €4 billion in low-interest loans to renovate schools by 2030 and another €1 billion for universities by 2029, amid nationwide protests.
Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio is roughly 65%. Germany holds the top AAA credit rating. France is rated AA, A+ or Aa3, depending on the agency, and several agencies have given France a negative outlook.
France pays nearly 1.6 percentage points more than Germany in interest on 10-year bonds, the report says. This gap, known as the spread, is at its highest level since the financial crisis. Friedrich Heinemann, an economist at the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, told DW that the spread works as a "fever gauge" for bond markets. He warned that a sharp rise could tighten French financing conditions, pressure banks and escalate the crisis.
The report says France is expected to pay more than €79 billion in interest on its public debt in 2026. That figure is projected to exceed €91 billion in 2027 and could reach between €125 billion and €132 billion by 2030. The French Treasury agency Agence France Tresor estimates the central government's interest bill alone at €62.6 billion.
Landry Charrier, a researcher at the University of Bonn's Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies, told DW that 56% of the French population receives more in government benefits and services than it pays in taxes and social contributions, according to INSEE, the national statistics agency. He said the majority therefore has a tangible interest in maintaining the status quo.
The report notes that France has run budget deficits for more than half a century and last balanced its budget in 1974. Both the far-right National Rally and the far-left France Unbowed are campaigning on costly promises, the report says. Heinemann described their proposals as "economic fairy tales."