Britain's official statistics on immigration, employment and inflation contain large and acknowledged errors, according to a POLITICO Europe report on the Westminster Insider podcast.
The report says the Office for National Statistics (ONS) undercounted EU nationals arriving in the UK between 2012 and 2020 by 76%, or 93,000 people a year. Laura Gilbert, who ran data science in No. 10 Downing Street until last year, told POLITICO that net migration figures are often misleading and that the first published figure is often the least accurate. The report says the ONS's November 2023 estimate of net migration was 672,000, and that a year later the ONS admitted it was 906,000.
On employment, the report says the Labour Force Survey missed 1 million workers between 2019 and 2024, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank. The Office for Budget Responsibility said this week that falling response rates have made the survey less reliable for estimating workers and hours. Gilbert said Chancellor John Healey's claim of "1 million young people out of work" is unlikely to be accurate.
The report also cites an Office for Budget Responsibility assessment that gives a one in five chance that inflation in 2027 will exceed 4.5%, and the same chance it will fall below 2.5%. Ben Warner, who set up Downing Street's data science unit, called the uncertainty "mental" in his words.